Bank of America Sets $1.5 Billion Opening Weekend Benchmark for GTA 6

Bank of America equity analysts have set a lofty financial hurdle for Grand Theft Auto 6, estimating that the title needs to generate at least $1.5 billion during its opening weekend to keep pace with investor targets.

In a research note following Take-Two Interactive's fiscal second-quarter earnings call, analysts Omar Dessouky and Arthur Chu reiterated a Buy rating and a $330 price target for the publisher. The analysts identified launch weekend as a crucial litmus test, warning that gross revenue below $1.5 billion would signal that unit volume risks missing Wall Street's median expectation of approximately 50 million copies sold across fiscal 2027.

A primary driver behind the aggressive revenue math is premium edition adoption. According to Bank of America's breakdown, Take-Two's forward outlook implies that over half of digital pre-orders have opted for the $99.99 Ultimate Edition, showcasing significant franchise pricing leverage. For its own baseline projections, the bank conservatively models a 30% premium edition mix.

During the investor call, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick addressed questions regarding how Rockstar plans to retain players once the main narrative concludes. Zelnick characterized post-campaign retention as "an array of high-class problems," pointing to the sandbox nature of the series where players naturally remain engaged in the world well after the story credits finish.

Long-term monetization hinges on the next evolution of GTA Online, which Bank of America now models launching in fiscal 2028, beginning April 2027. That timing adjustment prompted the bank to trim its fiscal 2027 in-game net spending projection to $5.36 billion from $5.54 billion. When pressed by analysts for visibility into fiscal 2028 performance, Zelnick declined to provide guidance ahead of schedule.

Take-Two kept its $8 billion to $8.2 billion fiscal 2027 bookings outlook as GTA 6 heads for its November 19 launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. · Image: thestreet.com · Original image

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Photo from the source article · Image: thestreet.com · Original image

Photo from the source article · Image: thestreet.com · Original image

Photo from the source article · Image: thestreet.com · Original image